Chicago Fire vs Real Salt Lake
- anyway you slice it RSL is still right at the top of this league despite their current bad form and sitting in just 4th place in the West. They've won just once in 7 but have had incredible injury problems in attack, were decimated by the Gold Cup, and were getting over the hangover of losing to Monterrey in the CCL finals. With 5 of their next 7 games being at home I expect they'll be at the top of the league table by the end of next month and plan on betting them quite a bit in July. IMO it's not even close that they have the league's best defense and allowing goals in 3 straight matches (4 overall) is not as bad as it seems. For one, two of the goals were phantom penalties given to their defenders because of the joke refs this league has while another goal was a miracle 30 yard strike from an unknown Columbus player. With almost all their players back and now healthy up front this team is set to go on a very big run and I will be betting them often. Saborio, Johnson, and Alvarez are all back from the cup while only keeper Rimando remains in the tournament. Johnson should be 100% since he's been out a week, Alvarez played sparingly for El Salvador, so only Saborio played quite a bit. His confidence is shaky after missing two penalties against Honduras (one in regulation, the other in penalty shootout) but he looked very good in the Gold Cup. Left fullback, Wingert, is likely out with a tweaked hammy suffered on the invisible penalty (if you haven't seen it... http://www.matchfitusa.com/2011/06/...tchFitUsa+(Match+Fit+USA)&utm_content=Twitter ) but he's easily the most replaceable starter on this team as Robbie Russell can play both sides. Only concern here is with so many home games coming up that RSL might rest some starters like they did when they played in New England, but they won that game anyway.
Not a whole lot to discuss when it comes to Chicago. Since changing coaches they've tightened up on defense but aren't getting any chances. They've drawn 8 out of 10 (1-8-1) but have still won just twice all season, once at home. When Western teams come here they generally have their way as Seattle, Vancouver and SJ all drew here while LA won 2-1. In fact they've not beaten a current Western Conference team at home since a 1-0 win over Chivas USA in Oct 2009 posting a 0-8-4 record. Conversely, RSL don't have a lot of problems with Eastern teams even away from home. In the past 15 months they're 3-6-1 against eastern teams on the road so certainly a good chance for a draw but I see very little chance that Chicago wins and I find it shocking their actually slight favorites. Chicago have been the league's poorest home team for several years winning barely 1/4 of their past 37 matches at home since 2009 season. H2H shows 9 straight matches of 2 or less goals and I expect similar scoreline on Wednesday with a 1-0 away win. Chicago have not scored against RSL in the past 346 minutes.
- anyway you slice it RSL is still right at the top of this league despite their current bad form and sitting in just 4th place in the West. They've won just once in 7 but have had incredible injury problems in attack, were decimated by the Gold Cup, and were getting over the hangover of losing to Monterrey in the CCL finals. With 5 of their next 7 games being at home I expect they'll be at the top of the league table by the end of next month and plan on betting them quite a bit in July. IMO it's not even close that they have the league's best defense and allowing goals in 3 straight matches (4 overall) is not as bad as it seems. For one, two of the goals were phantom penalties given to their defenders because of the joke refs this league has while another goal was a miracle 30 yard strike from an unknown Columbus player. With almost all their players back and now healthy up front this team is set to go on a very big run and I will be betting them often. Saborio, Johnson, and Alvarez are all back from the cup while only keeper Rimando remains in the tournament. Johnson should be 100% since he's been out a week, Alvarez played sparingly for El Salvador, so only Saborio played quite a bit. His confidence is shaky after missing two penalties against Honduras (one in regulation, the other in penalty shootout) but he looked very good in the Gold Cup. Left fullback, Wingert, is likely out with a tweaked hammy suffered on the invisible penalty (if you haven't seen it... http://www.matchfitusa.com/2011/06/...tchFitUsa+(Match+Fit+USA)&utm_content=Twitter ) but he's easily the most replaceable starter on this team as Robbie Russell can play both sides. Only concern here is with so many home games coming up that RSL might rest some starters like they did when they played in New England, but they won that game anyway.
Not a whole lot to discuss when it comes to Chicago. Since changing coaches they've tightened up on defense but aren't getting any chances. They've drawn 8 out of 10 (1-8-1) but have still won just twice all season, once at home. When Western teams come here they generally have their way as Seattle, Vancouver and SJ all drew here while LA won 2-1. In fact they've not beaten a current Western Conference team at home since a 1-0 win over Chivas USA in Oct 2009 posting a 0-8-4 record. Conversely, RSL don't have a lot of problems with Eastern teams even away from home. In the past 15 months they're 3-6-1 against eastern teams on the road so certainly a good chance for a draw but I see very little chance that Chicago wins and I find it shocking their actually slight favorites. Chicago have been the league's poorest home team for several years winning barely 1/4 of their past 37 matches at home since 2009 season. H2H shows 9 straight matches of 2 or less goals and I expect similar scoreline on Wednesday with a 1-0 away win. Chicago have not scored against RSL in the past 346 minutes.
well it looks like Saborio and Alvarez stayed home to rest. Strange for Alvarez as he barely played for El Salvador. Anyway, with Jean Alexandre suspended that leaves just Espindola and a young player up front so likely RSL with a defensive 4-5-1. Add to this that Klopas said he was unsure of how much Pappa can play tonight and that Chicago just sold their top forward, Peurari, to Atlas of Mexico, and I'll stake some to the under too
RSL/Chi under 2.5 2.25u -135
RSL/Chi under 2.5 2.25u -135
Philadelphia vs Sporting KC
- fairly big odds move here but I will oppose (as usual, it seems). I like KC a lot and had them as my #2 or #3 team in the east provided they got through the first 10 games ok, which they didn't (1-3-6). I love their attacking 4-3-3 especially when Smith and Zusi are manning the wings. Those two, along with Bravo and Collin, are their most important players but only Bravo is playing tonight. Ryan Smith just shocked the club by quitting for the rest of the season and flying back to England. He had 3g and 7a last year and was on-and-off this year with injuries so he will be sorely missed though Zusi has been a revelation this year. Bravo looks like he's still slowed by the back injury and Aurelien Collin is suspended tonight. Not only has he been KC's rock in central defense but he's been one of MLS's best all year and Julio Cesar will take his place. Cesar is a veteran but getting way up there in age and won't be able to play 90 minutes for sure. Philly is not a team I like to bet simply because they're inept offensively. While they have standout talent with Mwanga and Ruiz up front, the midfield isn't very creative and Le Toux is having a terrible season. But they are unbeaten in 7 straight at home, 4-3-0, allowing just 4 goals. Would be a bigger bet but never easy playing on West Coast then flying back Sunday for a Wednesday match in the heat.
Philly -1/4 2.5u +105
- fairly big odds move here but I will oppose (as usual, it seems). I like KC a lot and had them as my #2 or #3 team in the east provided they got through the first 10 games ok, which they didn't (1-3-6). I love their attacking 4-3-3 especially when Smith and Zusi are manning the wings. Those two, along with Bravo and Collin, are their most important players but only Bravo is playing tonight. Ryan Smith just shocked the club by quitting for the rest of the season and flying back to England. He had 3g and 7a last year and was on-and-off this year with injuries so he will be sorely missed though Zusi has been a revelation this year. Bravo looks like he's still slowed by the back injury and Aurelien Collin is suspended tonight. Not only has he been KC's rock in central defense but he's been one of MLS's best all year and Julio Cesar will take his place. Cesar is a veteran but getting way up there in age and won't be able to play 90 minutes for sure. Philly is not a team I like to bet simply because they're inept offensively. While they have standout talent with Mwanga and Ruiz up front, the midfield isn't very creative and Le Toux is having a terrible season. But they are unbeaten in 7 straight at home, 4-3-0, allowing just 4 goals. Would be a bigger bet but never easy playing on West Coast then flying back Sunday for a Wednesday match in the heat.
Philly -1/4 2.5u +105
Dallas vs Portland
- Dallas in very similar position as two weeks ago when they laid an egg losing at home 4-1. The coach called it the laziest performance he's seen out of a team and questions arose whether their heads were in the match with such a pathetic crowd (game 7 of Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavs was that night) and intense heat. Well, just like that night today will likely have small crowd (USA vs Mexico playing at same time) and intense heat but I expect a very focused FC Dallas team. Of course they are still without MLS MVP David Ferreira and any match where you need them to win by a good margin is a gamble but they should paste Portland. The Timbers, as I mentioned a few weeks back in Portland/DC preview, have the worst defense in the league. Goals-wise they are not the worst as both DC and Toronto have conceded more but talent-wise its no contest...they are awful. Now, their best and most experienced defender, Futty Danso, is going to try to play with a badly injured shoulder and a fellow starter, David Horst, who was subbed out at HT in midweek 3-3 match vs RBNY, will miss out. While Portland far and away lead MLS in set-piece goals they haven't scored from open play since mid-April! The 3 they scored last Sunday included one off a throw-in, a second on a free kick, and the final on an own goal. Their strikers are more adept at going offside than scoring as Perlaza and Cooper have combined for 46 offsides, most in MLS, but neither have scored in 4 matches and Cooper hasn't scored in 7. Portland come in on a very emotional low after throwing away a 3-1 lead with a 95th minute handball penalty to draw 3-3 and they have to travel over 2000 miles on a shorter week while losing 2 hours of local time to play the league's 2nd best team and with game time temperature in the mid-90's. They've yet to win on the road, 0-2-4 3/11, and haven't won a match in over a month when they squeaked by Columbus. Portland are coming off 2 home games and will return to Oregon with 2 more home games coming up so this is also a very bad scheduling situation with just a lone road game sandwiched between 4 home games. They faced this exact situation back in April coming off home wins over Chicago and Dallas and then returning for home wins over RSL and Philadelphia but that lone road game in the middle was a 3-0 loss in Los Angeles. That result sounds about right for tonight.
FC Dallas -.75 4u -107
- Dallas in very similar position as two weeks ago when they laid an egg losing at home 4-1. The coach called it the laziest performance he's seen out of a team and questions arose whether their heads were in the match with such a pathetic crowd (game 7 of Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavs was that night) and intense heat. Well, just like that night today will likely have small crowd (USA vs Mexico playing at same time) and intense heat but I expect a very focused FC Dallas team. Of course they are still without MLS MVP David Ferreira and any match where you need them to win by a good margin is a gamble but they should paste Portland. The Timbers, as I mentioned a few weeks back in Portland/DC preview, have the worst defense in the league. Goals-wise they are not the worst as both DC and Toronto have conceded more but talent-wise its no contest...they are awful. Now, their best and most experienced defender, Futty Danso, is going to try to play with a badly injured shoulder and a fellow starter, David Horst, who was subbed out at HT in midweek 3-3 match vs RBNY, will miss out. While Portland far and away lead MLS in set-piece goals they haven't scored from open play since mid-April! The 3 they scored last Sunday included one off a throw-in, a second on a free kick, and the final on an own goal. Their strikers are more adept at going offside than scoring as Perlaza and Cooper have combined for 46 offsides, most in MLS, but neither have scored in 4 matches and Cooper hasn't scored in 7. Portland come in on a very emotional low after throwing away a 3-1 lead with a 95th minute handball penalty to draw 3-3 and they have to travel over 2000 miles on a shorter week while losing 2 hours of local time to play the league's 2nd best team and with game time temperature in the mid-90's. They've yet to win on the road, 0-2-4 3/11, and haven't won a match in over a month when they squeaked by Columbus. Portland are coming off 2 home games and will return to Oregon with 2 more home games coming up so this is also a very bad scheduling situation with just a lone road game sandwiched between 4 home games. They faced this exact situation back in April coming off home wins over Chicago and Dallas and then returning for home wins over RSL and Philadelphia but that lone road game in the middle was a 3-0 loss in Los Angeles. That result sounds about right for tonight.
FC Dallas -.75 4u -107
